NGX Daily Market Summary – Thursday, October 23, 2025

The NGX All Share Index (ASI) traded up 0.49%, marking another positive session and pushing its Year-To-Date (YTD) gain to a robust 49.73%. The ASI closed at 153,736.25, bouncing from yesterday’s 154,489.90. Market turnover shot up 17.04%, hitting ₦24.98B with volume soaring to 902.77M shares. Despite the upbeat momentum, market breadth held at 0.95x, with a nearly even split between advancers (36) and decliners (38). Top spotlights: PZ Cussons impressed with a 10.00% rally, while TIP and JOHN HOLT PLC. each saw sharp declines of -10.00% and -9.72% respectively.

Market Breadth & Trends

• Market breadth stayed slightly negative (0.95x)—a sign of underlying rotation or skepticism as gains slowed. Buying interest is strong but selective.
• Turnover jumped 17.04%, underpinned by big institutional flows—an encouraging sign for liquidity-sensitive strategies.
• Volume was up in 59 names but down in 81, indicating some pockets are attracting the lion’s share of new interest.

Top Gainers & Losers

• PZ Cussons: Continues its streak, bolstered by moving average cross (15DMA above 50DMA) and an RSI around mid-50s, suggesting still-healthy but not overheated buying pressure.
• ASO Savings: Noticeably high volume (+4750% vs 90D avg) and an RSI near overbought territory (69.9) — momentum may extend but upside risk increases.
• WAPCO: Both price and institutional interest (record value traded) surged. Volume is 9x the 90-day average, flagging strong accumulation. 15DMA to 50DMA cross is very positive.
• Stanbic IBTC, NB, Multiverse: All appear in both today’s losers and YTD underperformers—a sign of persistent distribution or sector-specific headwinds.

Momentum & Volume Insights

• Bullish Crosses (15DMA > 50DMA):
  • PZ Cussons (Continued uptrend), CAP, TIP, BERGER, and WAPCO stand out with moving averages crossing bullishly—indicative of extended or resuming uptrends.
• Bearish Crosses (15DMA < 50DMA):
  • Stanbic IBTC, RT Briscoe, NB, and NGXBNK Index are all breaking down—these names should be watched for further weakness, especially with RSI heading toward neutral or lower.
• Unusual Volume:
  • ASO Savings (+4750% vs avg), JAPAULGOLD, WAPCO and NASCON attracted huge volumes. Stocks with both heavy volume and price spikes typically see follow-through — but also raise short-term speculation/volatility risk.
• RSI Watch:
  • ASO Savings (RSI 69.87), NASCON, and ARADEL (YTD leaders) are nearing or at overbought — monitor for exhaustion/pullbacks.
  • No major stocks flagged excessively oversold (RSI < 30), suggesting downside is more drift than panic selling.

Contrarian Signals

• ASO Savings: Extreme volume and strong price action, but RSI at 69.9 is a warning—momentum traders may ride further upside, but a cooldown is likely.
• PZ Cussons: Despite 10% run-up, the RSI is moderate (55.5)—not overbought, supporting a potential further leg up as long as volume sustains.
• Stanbic IBTC: Negative price performance and bearish momentum, but still a relatively high RSI (66.3) and an uptrending MACD—suggesting potential bounce-back after de-risking.
• TIP: Posts double-digit gain, yet only a middling RSI (47.5)—further analysis warranted.
• NASCON: Appearing in both unusual volume and YTD gainers (279.6% YTD), but RSI is at an inflection—consider profit taking or tight risk controls.

Sector Heatmaps & Institutional/Technical Trends

• Sector Note: Building Materials are today's standout; Banking and Insurance lag, with clear technical breakdowns (sub-15DMA for major names).
• Institutional clustering was highest in WAPCO (25.6% of inst. value), followed by ACCESSCORP, ARADEL, NB and MTNN.

Dividend-Beta Matrix: Defensive Opportunities

• Several high dividend plays (PZ, CAP, NASCON, AFRIPRUD) also show up among bullish momentum candidates, increasing the "total return" argument for cautious investors.
• NASCON and PZ: Rare overlap of "bullish technical" and "income defensive" buckets.

Institutional Clustering Alerts

• WAPCO: Accounted for 25.6% of total institutional trade value and nearly 5% of all institutional volume today—a red flag for institutional accumulation or rotation.
• ZENITHBANK: Although not a top mover, posted significant retail activity (3.11% trade count share); institutional interest remains steady.
• ARADEL: Institutional flows (22% of volume) support the ongoing rally—watch for extended moves, but tight stops are prudent as volumes have normalized from prior surges.

Market Activity Deep Dive: Retail vs Institutional Patterns

• Institutions only accounted for 38.96% of trade count but 84.36% of volume and an overwhelming 91.95% of value traded, confirming presence of block trading and strategic re-balancing over churn.
• Retail dominated trade count (61.04%) but traded in smaller lots (just 15.64% of volume, 8.05% value)—indicative of broader, smaller-scale activity in more liquid counters.
• Top institutional stocks: WAPCO, ACCESSCORP, ARADEL, NB, and MTNN. WAPCO and NB overlap with top volume and value gainers, reflecting sector (cement/industry) rotation.
• Top retail stocks: MTNN, ACCESSCORP, DANGCEM, GTCO, ZENITHBANK. Note that ACCESSCORP appears in both institutional and retail lists—market bellwether or speculative play; monitor for spillover volatility.
• Insight: Names with heavy institutional flows (WAPCO, ARADEL) and unusual volumes are likely to continue trending in the short term—especially if technicals confirm bullish setups (as seen with 15DMA crossovers).

Trader Takeaways & Recommendations

• Opportunities: Consider trading with the trend in WAPCO, NASCON, ASO Savings, and PZ while trailing stops—momentum and institutional support present, but manage risk as volumes spike.
• Caution: Avoid freshly-bearish names (STANBIC, NB, RT Briscoe) for new longs until momentum shifts; monitor for mean reversion/contrarian signals if oversold levels are reached.
• Income-seekers: Focus on high-yield, low-beta names like AFRIPRUD and CAP. Overlay with technical signals to time entries.
• Rotation Watch: Broad market remains bullish, but sector-level divergence is real. Building Materials outperform; banking/insurance lag—use relative strength checks for portfolio balancing.
• Position sizing: Elevated/unusual volumes (ASO, NASCON, WAPCO) warrant smaller entries—anticipated volatility and profit taking spikes possible.

Currency & Macro

• Naira: Appreciation of 0.07% against the USD (₦1,466/$)—a supportive backdrop but watch for currency-fueled repositioning if trend persists.